China’s Electricity Demand Increases Thanks to Economic Growth and a Shift from Fossil Fuels
GSEP member: SGCC
In 2017, total electricity consumption in China was 6.3 trillion kWh, 6.6% higher than in 2016. Agriculture’s consumption increased by 7.3%, industry by 6.6%, services by 10.7% and the residential sector by 7.8%. China’s power generation mix in 2017 has 37.8% of non‑fossil capacity (+11.2% since 2010), generating 29.1% of its electricity (+9.8% since 2010).
China’s electricity demand in 2020, 2030 and 2050 is predicted to rise to 7.5, 10.3 and 13.6 trillion kWh respectively. In total, the share of electricity in final energy demand in 2020, 2030 and 2050 will be 25.2%, 30.4% and 40.4% respectively.
In industry, the share of electricity in total energy demand will increase from 22.6% in 2015 to 27.6% in 2020, 33.1% in 2030 and 39.8% in 2050. In transportation, the share of electricity in total energy demand will increase from 3.9% in 2015 to 6.1% in 2020, 14.1% in 2030 and 33.2% in 2050. In the commercial sector, the share of electricity in total energy demand will increase from 34.7% in 2015 to 37.8% in 2020, 40.5% in 2030 and 47.3% in 2050. In the residential sector, the share of electricity in total energy demand will increase from
25.6% in 2015 to 28.4% in 2020, 34.0% in 2030 and 47.3% in 2050.
In the period from 2015 to 2030, industry will be the main driver for electricity demand growth, contributing 40% of the total growth. In the period from 2030-2050, the contribution from the industry sector will become negative, while the residential, transportation and commercial sectors will make contributions of 52%, 42% and 39% respectively to the total growth.
Thanks to its electrification initiative, involving nearly 100,000 projects, State Grid replaced 115 GWh of other energies with electricity in 2017. The period 2013-2017 saw an acceleration of State Grid’s achievements with a total electrification figure of 358 GWh. State Grid’s target for 2018 is 130 GWh, mainly from the installation of electric furnaces and replacing oil furnaces in airports and ports.
State Grid believes that the trends of electrification in both energy supply and demand side are speeding up, so called re-electrification. The supply side shows large-scale development and utilization of clean energy, especially new energy. The demand side witnesses deep substitution of fossil fuels by electricity, such as transportation electrification, electric motors, electric heating. The next-generation power system, as the fundamental platform of the energy transition, will become interconnected, intelligent, flexible, and controllable.
GSEP members: SGCC,